FarmPolicy

Sept. World Agricultural Outlook Board- WASDE Update

This morning, the World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report which contained the latest official government production estimates for the U.S. corn and soybean crops.

The report indicated that, “U.S. feed grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected higher this month with a reduction in forecast corn production more than offset by higher projected corn carryin. U.S. corn production is lowered 52 million bushels with the national average yield forecast 0.6 bushels per acre lower at 122.8 bushels. Lower yields and production in the Corn Belt and Central Plains are partly offset by increases elsewhere, particularly across the South where an early harvest is boosting available supplies.

“U.S. corn supplies for 2012/13 are projected 108 million bushels higher as an increase in expected beginning stocks more than offsets lower production this month. Exports for 2011/12 are lowered 10 million bushels reflecting the slowing pace of shipments during August. Feed and residual use for 2011/12 is lowered 150 million bushels based on the record level of crop maturity and harvest progress as of September 1…The projected range for the corn season-average farm price is lowered 30 cents on both ends of the range to $7.20 to $8.60 per bushel.”

The WASDE update added that, “Soybean supplies for 2012/13 are reduced due to lower forecast production and beginning stocks. Soybean production is projected at 2.634 billion bushels, down 58 million due to lower yields in the Midwest. Soybean exports are reduced 55 million bushels to 1.055 billion mainly due to reduced supplies…The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2012/13 is projected unchanged at $15.00 to $17.00 per bushel.”

Complete estimates for the entire U.S. corn and soybean balance sheet, including projected average farm price, can be viewed by clicking on the tables below, which were part of today’s WAOB report (corn table left, soybean table right).

In addition, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its Crop Production report today; this report was incorporated into the WASDE estimates.

The NASS report included the following graphical illustrations with respect to U.S. corn and soybean production (click on graphs for full view).

Gregory Meyer reported today at The Financial Times Online that, “The US Department of Agriculture estimated this year’s harvest in the world’s leading corn producer would total 10.727bn bushels, down 13 per cent from a year ago and down from last month’s forecast of 10.78bn bushels. The figure was higher than consensus forecasts, which stood around 10.38bn bushels of corn production.

“The government forecast 2.634bn bushels of soyabean production, down 2 per cent from its August estimate of 2.69bn bushels, as yield projections fell further. Analysts had expected 2.66bn bushels of production.

The FT article noted that, “CBOT September corn fell 2.3 per cent to $7.64 a bushel, while CBOT September soyabeans slipped 0.5 per cent to $16.88½ a bushel. CBOT September wheat, which is for delivery of the already-harvested soft red winter crop, retreated 1.3 per cent to $8.49 a bushel…The US forecasted that harvested acres of corn to be unchanged from the estimates of 87.4m made a month ago, up 4 per cent from the previous crop year.”

-kg

Posted by Keith Good • September, 12, 2012 • 8:34 am