January 21, 2020

USDA Crop Production Update

Today, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its October Crop Production report.

In part, the NASS update indicated that, “Corn production is forecast at 10.7 billion bushels, down slightly from the September forecast and down 13 percent from 2011. This represents the lowest production in the United States since 2006. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 122.0 bushels per acre, down 0.8 bushel from the September forecast and 25.2 bushels below the 2011 average. If realized, this will be the lowest average yield since 1995. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 87.7 million acres, up less than 1 percent from the September forecast and up 4 percent from 2011. Acreage updates were made in several States based on administrative data.”

Today’s update added that, “Soybean production is forecast at 2.86 billion bushels, up 9 percent from September but down 8 percent from last year. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 37.8 bushels per acre, up 2.5 bushels from last month but down 4.1 bushels from last year. Compared with last month, yield forecasts are higher or unchanged across all States. Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at 75.7 million acres, up 1 percent from September and up 3 percent from last year. Acreage updates were made in several States based on administrative data.”

The NASS update included these two graphical illustrations of U.S. corn and soybean production (click on graph for full view).

Also today, the World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), which incorporated today’s NASS production update.

In part, the WASDE report stated that, “U.S. corn use for 2012/13 is lowered with a 100-million-bushel reduction in projected exports. Corn exports are lowered based on the slow pace of sales to date and strong competition from Brazil. Corn ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 114 million bushels lower at 619 million…[T]he season-average farm price for corn is lowered 10 cents on both ends of the range to $7.10 to $8.50 per bushel based on early season cash and futures prices and prices available for forward delivery through early 2013.”

The WAOB also noted that, “U.S. soybean exports for 2012/13 are raised 210 million bushels to 1.265 billion reflecting increased supplies, lower prices, and the record pace of export sales through early October. Soybean crush is raised 40 million bushels to 1.540 billion mostly due to increased soybean meal exports and increased soybean supplies. Soybean crush is also supported by an increase in domestic disappearance of soybean oil which reflects the impact of the increase of the biodiesel mandate for 2013 recently announced by the Environmental Protection Agency. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 130 million bushels, up 15 million from last month.

“Prices for soybeans and products are all reduced this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2012/13 is projected at $14.25 to $16.25 per bushel, down $0.75 on both ends of the range.”

Charts containing the complete supply and demand variables for U.S. corn and soybeans are reproduced from today’s WASDE report (click on tables for full view).


Farm Bill; Budget; Ag Economy; Biofuels; and, CFTC Issues

Farm Bill Issues

Pete Kasperowicz reported yesterday at The Hill’s Floor Action Blog that, “The Democratic ranking members of 18 House committees called on their Republican counterparts to convene hearings on a range of issues such as taxes, the farm bill and the Violence Against Women Act, instead of coasting for the next four weeks before the elections.

“‘Not only has the House recessed without addressing these urgent concerns, but the committees you chair are failing to hold hearings and conduct other urgent business,’ they wrote to House Republicans.

“‘As the senior Democrats on the House committees, we reiterate our strong desire for our committees to conduct official business during October,’ they said. ‘We are prepared to work with our chairs to schedule hearings and legislative action in our committees throughout this month, instead of remaining inactive.’”

The letter, which was signed by Ag Committee Ranking Member Collin Peterson (D., Minn.), noted that, “The House will be in session just eight days between August 3 and November 13, although important legislation deserves our immediate attention: middle-­‐income tax cuts, jobs bill, the Farm bill, and the Violence Against Women Act. We also should use the next four weeks to consider responsible deficit reduction alternatives to the looming sequester.”