FarmPolicy

February 21, 2019

Economic Research Service: Feed Outlook, October

Yesterday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (ERS) released its Feed Outlook report, “Smaller Carryin and Forecast Production Tighten Corn Ending Stocks for 2012/13.”

The ERS report contained a detailed summary of recent USDA projections regarding feed grains and noted that, “U.S. corn production for 2012/13 is lowered 21 million bushels as lower yield more than offsets higher area in this month’s forecasts. The yield slips 0.8 bushels per acre to 122.0 bushels, and harvested area advances 0.4 million acres to 87.7 million. Corn supplies for 2012/13 are projected 214 million bushels lower, mostly reflecting lower carryin based on September 1 stocks. Projected exports are reduced 100 million bushels. Corn ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 114 million bushels lower at 619 million. The projected average price received by growers is reduced 10 cents on each end of the range to $7.10- $8.50 per bushel due to lower-than-expected early season cash and futures prices.

Reduced production and beginning stocks leave world coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 projected down 11.0 million tons this month to the lowest level since 2007/08. However, foreign corn supplies in 2012/13 are projected to be record high at 673.5 million tons. Brazil’s corn exports for trade year 2012/13 are raised over 30 percent this month to a record 19.0 million tons, supporting an increase in forecast corn trade and a sharp reduction in U.S. exports to the lowest level in almost 40 years.”

The ERS report included this graphic relating to U.S. ending stocks (click on the graphs for full, expanded view):

Yesterday’s report also included this graph depicting U.S. corn supply, as well as a graph showing cash prices for corn in Central Illinois.

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