On October 12, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (ERS) released its Oil Crops Outlook report, “Advancing Soybean Harvest Eases Near-term Prices.”
In part, the ERS report stated that, “USDA raised its forecast of the 2012 U.S. soybean yield this month to 37.8 bushels per acre. Coupled with a 1.1-million-acre increase in harvested acreage, a higher yield boosts the forecast of 2012 U.S. soybean production by 226 million bushels this month to 2.86 billion. USDA raised its 2012/13 export forecast by 210 million bushels to 1.265 billion. Similarly, the expected crush for 2012/13 is up 40 million bushels from the September forecast to 1.54 billion.
“Based primarily on a larger U.S. crop, global soybean production for 2012/13 is forecast up to 264.3 million metric tons from 258.1 million last month. An improved U.S. export share in 2012/13 would moderate soybean exports from Brazil and Argentina to 37.4 million tons and 12 million tons, respectively.”
The ERS report contained this graph depicting 2012/13 soybean supply, exports and domestic crush (click on the graphs for full, expanded view):
Last week’s ERS report added that, “In September, a better yield outlook and the surge of U.S. new-crop supplies into the market moderated soybean prices. Between late August and early October, central Illinois cash prices plunged by more than $2 per bushel to around $15.25 per bushel. USDA lowered its forecast of the U.S. season-average farm price to $14.25- $16.25 per bushel from $15-$17 last month. Price relief may prove to be short- lived, however. Once the harvest finishes and demand accelerates, upward momentum for soybean prices could soon build again.”