FarmPolicy

August 23, 2014

USDA Crop Production Update

Today, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its November Crop Production report.

In part, the NASS update indicated that, “Corn production is forecast at 10.7 billion bushels, up slightly from the October forecast but down 13 percent from 2011. This represents the lowest production in the United States since 2006. Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average 122.3 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushel from the October forecast but 24.9 bushels below the 2011 average. If realized, this will be the lowest average yield since 1995. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 87.7 million acres, unchanged from the October forecast and up 4 percent from 2011.”

Today’s update added that, “Soybean production is forecast at 2.97 billion bushels, up 4 percent from October but down 4 percent from last year. Based on November 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 39.3 bushels per acre, up 1.5 bushels from last month but down 2.6 bushels from last year. Compared with last month, yield forecasts are higher or unchanged across all States except for Oklahoma and Texas. Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at 75.7 million acres, unchanged from October and up 3 percent from last year.”

The NASS update included these two graphical illustrations of U.S. corn and soybean production (click on graph for full view).

Also today, the World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), which incorporated today’s NASS production update.

In part, the WASDE report stated that, “Projected corn imports are raised 25 million bushels reflecting expectations for more shipments, particularly into the southeastern feed market which ordinarily relies heavily on supplies from the eastern Corn Belt. Corn food, seed, and industrial use for 2012/13 is raised 17 million bushels with higher use projected for sweeteners and starch. Corn ending stocks are projected 28 million bushels higher at 647 million. The season-average farm price for corn, at $6.95 to $8.25 per bushel, is projected 20 cents lower at the midpoint, mostly reflecting a lower-than-expected September price and the continuation of weakness in cash and deferred futures prices over the past month.”

The WAOB also noted that, “Soybean crush is raised 20 million bushels to 1.56 billion based on increased soybean meal export prospects. Soybean exports are raised 80 million bushels to 1.345 billion reflecting larger supplies and the strong pace of sales through October. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 140 million bushels, up 10 million from last month.”

Prices for soybeans and products are all reduced this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price range is projected at $13.90 to $15.90 per bushel, down 35 cents on both ends of the range.”

Charts containing the complete supply and demand variables for U.S. corn and soybeans are reproduced from today’s WASDE report (click on tables for full view).

-kg

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