A news release yesterday from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) indicated that, “Producers surveyed across the United States intend to plant an estimated 81.5 million acres of soybeans in 2014, up 6 percent from last year and an all-time record high, according to the Prospective Plantings report released today by [NASS]. If realized, soybeans will surpass the previous record of 77.5 million acres planted in the United States set in 2009.”
The release added that, “Corn growers intend to plant 91.7 million acres in 2014, down 4 percent from last year and if realized the lowest planted acreage since 2010. Expected returns for corn are anticipated to be lower in 2014 compared with recent years [related graph].”
Climate Issues- White House Proposal, and Farm Bill Issues
Justin Gillis reported on the front page of today’s New York Times that, “Climate change is already having sweeping effects on every continent and throughout the world’s oceans, scientists reported Monday, and they warned that the problem is likely to grow substantially worse unless greenhouse emissions are brought under control.
“The report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a United Nations group that periodically summarizes climate science, concluded that ice caps are melting, sea ice in the Arctic is collapsing, water supplies are coming under stress, heat waves and heavy rains are intensifying, coral reefs are dying, and fish and many other creatures are migrating toward the poles or in some cases going extinct.”
Chapter Seven of the report, which is available here, is titled, “Food Security & Food Production Systems.”
Ellyn Ferguson reported yesterday at Roll Call Online that, “Large-scale farming and agribusiness, derisively dubbed Big Ag by critics, look to polish their image this week with a Statuary Hall ceremony for a hero in the field and a screening of a documentary about young farmers and ranchers.
“On Tuesday, top lawmakers, including Speaker John A. Boehner, R-Ohio, plan to attend the installation of a bronze statue of plant scientist Norman E. Borlaug. Borlaug is hailed as the father of the 1960s ‘Green Revolution’ that improved crop production in Mexico and Asia.”
Reuters news reported on Friday that, “China’s corn imports from the United States, the world’s top exporter, decreased sharply in February, hurt by Beijing’s rejection of an unapproved genetically-modified (GMO) strain, but imports from Ukrainesurged, official customs data showed on Friday.”
The article explained that, “Beijing has since November rejected a total of about 900,000 tonnes of corn from the United States after detecting Syngenta corn strain MIR 162, which is not approved by China’s agriculture ministry for import.
“But China’s imports of non-GMO corn from Ukraine surged to 192,374 tonnes in February, bringing the country’s total imports in the month to 479,758 tonnes, up 21.74 percent on year, data showed.
“China started importing corn from Ukraine late last year and feed mills continue to book cargoes under a loan-for-grains deal signed in 2012.”
Paul Davidson reported this week at USA Today Online that, “Prices are rising for a range of food staples, from meat and pork to fruits and vegetables, squeezing consumers still struggling with modest wage gains.
Damian Paletta reported this week at The Real Time Economics Blog (Wall Street Journal) that, “After years of increases that defied the roaring stock market of 2013 and the slowly falling unemployment rate, the number of Americans receiving food stamps appears to be easing. Somewhat. Very, very slowly.
The Journal update explained that, “SNAP data can bounce around, and it’s unclear whether the number of people receiving benefits will continue to fall. The December figures don’t take into account changes that were made in February when Congress passed a farm bill that included new limits on who can receive food stamps. Also, as more and more Americans return to work and earn more money, the number of people receiving these benefits is expected to fall, though many thought total enrollment would fall more quickly than it has.”
Jennifer Steinhauer reported in yesterday’s New York Times that, “Within [the farm bill signed by President Obamalast month] is a significant shift in the types of farmers who are now benefiting from taxpayer dollars, reflecting a decade of changing eating habits and cultural dispositions among American consumers. Organic farmers, fruit growers and hemp producers all did well in the new bill. An emphasis on locally grown, healthful foods appeals to a broad base of their constituents, members of both major parties said.”
The article noted that, “While traditional commodities subsidies were cut by more than 30 percent to $23 billion over 10 years, funding for fruits and vegetables and organic programs increased by more than 50 percent over the same period, to about $3 billion.
“Fruit and vegetable farmers, who have been largely shut out of the crop insurance programs that grain and other farmers have enjoyed for decades, now have far greater access. Other programs for those crops were increased by 55 percent from the 2008 bill, which expired last year, and block grants for their marketing programs grew exponentially.”
A news release on Friday (“U.S. Sugar Producers Set Sights on Foreign Subsidies”) indicated that, “With a strong five-year sugar policy at their side, U.S. sugar producers are now setting their sights on addressing the foreign sugar subsidies that make U.S. sugar policy necessary. That’s according to Jack Roney, director of economics and policy analysis for the American Sugar Alliance (ASA), who spoke today at the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum.
“‘U.S. sugar producers are among the most efficient in the world, and we would thrive in a global freemarket, if one existed,’ he explained. ‘But historically, sugar has been and continues to be the world’s most distorted commodity market because of foreign subsidization. Something must be done about it.’
“Roney says that sugar producers are so serious about addressing foreign subsidies that, even after passage of a five-year Farm Bill, they still remain willing to give up U.S. sugar policy if other countries will end their direct and indirect market-distorting policies.”
In part, today’s article noted that, “But just as a new industry for Iowa is about to take root, a proposed change in government policy could limit demand for ethanol and send new plants and jobs to other countries. Think Brazil, China or European nations…The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has proposed reducing the amount of renewable fuel that must be blended into the fuel supply that powers American vehicles. The EPA says it’s bending to market realities: The mandates were too aggressive and hard to reach, given that autos have become more fuel-efficient.”
The Register article added that, “Using cellulosic ethanol in your tank is expected to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 86 percent when compared with gasoline, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. Corn-based ethanol, as it’s currently made, reduces greenhouse gases an average of about 20 percent.” (See related video below).
Reuters writer Christine Stebbins reported yesterday that, “U.S. farmers and bankers have almost a year to get ready for major changes in 2015 as crop insurance rather than direct cash payments to producers becomes the centerpiece of farm policy under the five-year farm bill signed by President Barack Obama earlier this month.
“For 2014 plantings, analysts said there will be no major changes to crop insuranceexcept sharply lower grain prices than in 2013, which will lower potential payments and premiums. Then in 2015, farmers will have a new insurance option for supplemental coverage based on local county yields.”
“‘The message is crop insurance does become the foundation of the farm bill and the primary safety net for producers because they have lost all those direct payments,’ [Michael Barrett, senior vice president for crop insurance at Farm Credit Services of America] said.”
David Rogers reported yesterday at Politico that, “After a two-year struggle and more perils than ‘Downton Abbey,’ Congress should finally see a new farm bill this week as House-Senate negotiators worked through the weekend in hopes of filing the legislation by Monday night.
“Going into Sunday night, disputes continued over livestock regulations. But afternoon staff briefings were already being held on the proposed agreement, and the hope was to call the conferees together for their signatures on Monday.
“Indeed, the mood was such that no one believed any longer that more time would help; instead, it was judged better to grab the opportunity for House action this week. And if the farm bill is filed Monday night, the leadership is proposing to call it up as early as Wednesday, a fast turnaround for a measure given up as dead by many just months ago.”
Mr. Rogers noted that, “Bipartisan support remains crucial, but Democrats have won significant compromises on food stamp funding and Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) is promising a real push to deliver the needed Republican votes.”
David Rogers reported yesterday at Politico that, “Yards from the finish line, farm bill negotiators are struggling with two final issues — dairy and payment limits — each of which takes Congress back full circle to the question asked when the whole debate began two years ago.
“How far should government go to protect farmers from bad times — and, sometimes, themselves?
“In dairy’s case, Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) is adamant that he won’t accept the hands-on approach espoused in the Senate bill to manage future milk supplies to protect farmers’ margins. Corporate giants like Kraft Foods and Nestleback the speaker. And this puts House Agriculture Committee Chairman Frank Lucas (R-Okla.) in the hellish position of having to go against the man who’s been his best friend and ally in the whole tortured farm bill debate: Rep. Collin Peterson (D-Minn.).”
The article noted that, “In the case of payment limits, it’s a very different set of players. But the question is again one of balancing government’s role and the risks of modern agriculture.”
The “Washington Insider” section of DTN explained yesterday (link requires subscription) that, “A number of reports have indicated that an agreement among farm bill conferees that would provide a new dairy policy program without supply management means the farm bill is all but completed. However, there remain several loose ends still dangling until Congress reconvenes next week.
“Chief among these are provisions covering crop subsidy caps and country-of-origin labeling (COOL) for meat and meat products. Some Capitol Hill sources predict that the four farm bill principals likely will decide those issues during a meeting among themselves rather than holding a meeting that includes all 41 conferees.
“There are some who are promoting a modified North American label for COOL, without a U.S.-origin label, but some pro-COOL farm group lobbyists are opposed. Others are counseling that USDA take its time regarding the final COOL rule, choosing instead to wait until the World Trade Organization decides a pending case on that rule that has been filed by Canada and Mexico.”
Ali Meyer reported yesterday at CNSNews.com that, “A record 20% of American households, one in five, were on food stamps in 2013, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).”
Meanwhile, Ron Nixon reported yesterday at The New York Times Online that, “Late last year, staff members at the Capital Area Food Bank here [Washington] began fielding requests for larger deliveries from the dozens of soup kitchens and food pantries that it supplies as more and more people showed up seeking help.
“The food bank said it was not unusual to see a surge before Thanksgiving or Christmas. But this time the lines were caused not by the holidays but by a $5 billion cut to the federal food stamp program that took effect in November when a provision in the 2009 stimulus bill expired.
“Now the food bank, which provided about 45 million pounds of food last year, says it is preparing for even greater demand as Congress prepares to cut billions of dollars more from the food stamp program, which is included in a farm bill that has yet to pass. About 47 million Americans receive food stamps.”
Mr. Nixon explained that, “It is unclear when the new cuts will kick in, even if Congress manages to pass a new farm bill, an effort that has taken almost two years. The House and the Senate appear to have worked out most of their differences on the bill. That compromise is expected to cut about $9 billion from food stamps over 10 years. House Republicans had wanted to trim financing by $40 billion over the same period, and a bipartisan Senate bill sought a $4 billion cut.
“But House members, most of them Republicans, may be unwilling to pass a bill that includes anything less than the $40 billion cut. And senators, especially Democrats, may see the compromise measure as going too far. President Obama has threatened to veto any bill that cuts too deeply.”
Ramsey Cox reported yesterday afternoon (12:32 pm) at The Hill’s Floor Action Blog that, “Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) raised his glass of milk Thursday on the Senate floor to celebrate a reported breakthrough in a deal on dairy in the farm bill negotiations.”
The Hill update noted that, “Blumenthal, who serves on the Senate Agriculture Committee, said he was ‘pleased’ that farm bill conferees were nearing a deal on dairy policies — the last issue that needed to be worked out in the bill.
“‘I am pleased they have reached a dairy compromise,’ Blumenthal said. But the senator didn’t reveal any details about the deal.”
A short time later (1:23 pm), Erik Wasson reported at The Hill’s On the Money Blog that, “The stalled farm bill is picking up momentum again, as negotiators try to resolve all remaining differences this week.
“House Agriculture Committee ranking member Collin Peterson (D-Minn.) said Thursday that farm bill negotiators are aiming to unveil the legislation next week and have it voted on during the last week of January, half of which is taken up by the Republican annual retreat.”